Therefore the MJO may influence the climate pattern in the Week 3-4 period and the dynamical model forecasts of temperature and precipitation for the Week 3-4 Outlook. Dynamical models forecast the RMM MJO index to emerge in phase 5 over the Maritime Continent in the next few days and propagate eastward once again into phase 6 and possibly 7. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was active recently in phases 6 and 7 as indicated by the Realtime Multivariate MJO (RMM) index as a Kelvin wave crossed the Western and Central Pacific, but is now in an inactive state. La Niña conditions persist across the tropical Pacific and remain the dominant influence on anomalous convection throughout the global tropics. Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Nov 26 2022-Fri Dec 09 2022 NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
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